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Population Projections

The Northern Territory Population Projections have been developed to meet the needs of Northern Territory Government agencies as well as the broader community. The assumptions and parameters on which they are based are the result of extensive consultation within Northern Territory Government. The process has also involved Charles Darwin University (CDU) whose staff provided expert advice as well as the technical expertise to develop a projections model (NTPOP).

The projections are based on Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Estimated Resident Populations (ERPs) derived from the 2006 Census of Population and Housing. Projections are available for:

	·	Residents of the whole of the Northern Territory from 2006-2036 broken down by individual year of age, sex and Indigenous status
	·	Residents of each of the Northern Territory Statistical Reporting Regions (Darwin – split into Greater Darwin and rest of Darwin region, Katherine, East Arnhem, Barkly and Alice Springs – see Appendix 2 of the overview report (below) for a map). These projections are made available for 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 broken down by five year age group, sex and Indigenous status.

The model also produces projections for the geographic regions of Australia and ‘rest of Australia’. Depending on the objectives of their work, users may need to use the ABS projections for the total Australian population.

The projections will be reviewed and updated annually for any minor revisions such as amendments to ABS figures and changes to parameters based on any emerging research. Every five years following release of the latest ABS Census results, a major review will be conducted and all numbers revised based on the ERPs derived from a new Census.

These projections are formulated using the cohort component method and their values reflect the consequence of applying certain assumptions about the future direction and levels of fertility, mortality and migration. They should not be interpreted as accurate forecasts or predictions. The alignment of projections to actual ERPs can be expected to deteriorate over time. All population projections should be used with caution. In particular, the regional projections will suffer more limitations than the Northern Territory total projections because the base input data are less accurate for smaller geographic areas, and the migration flows become more complex at lower geographic levels as intra-regional as well as interstate and international migration to the Territory needs to be taken into account.

An overview report is provided below along with the detailed projection results. A mathematical description of the projection model NTPOP is also provided.

Projection outputs for three scenarios are currently available – NTG projections, Short-term variable migration, and High migration. The differences between these three scenarios are discussed in the overview report. There are three standard output Excel files for each scenario.

	Details
Overview report – Northern Territory Population Projections	(PDF, 586kb)
Mathematical details of the NTPOP projection model	(PDF, 1.48mb)
Output Files
NTG projections scenario
NTPOP summary NTG 09	(Excel, 182kb)
NTPOP single year age NTG 09	(Excel, 845kb)
NTPOP 5 year age NTG 09	(Excel, 482kb)
Short-term variable migration scenario
NTPOP summary variable 09	(Excel, 176kb)
NTPOP single year age variable 09	(Excel, 845kb)
NTPOP 5 year age variable 09	(Excel, 482kb)
High migration scenario
NTPOP summary high 09	(Excel, 176kb)
NTPOP single year age high 09	(Excel, 845kb)
NTPOP 5 year age high 09	(Excel, 482kb)